In the wake of a 2024 general election that saw Republicans make shocking headway in New Jersey, with Vice President Kamala Harris only winning the state 52% to 47% against President-elect Donald Trump, the New Jersey Globe spoke with Gov. Phil Murphy about the reasons behind the disappointing results and what Democrats can learn for future years. The following interview has been edited for length and clarity.
New Jersey Globe: What is your initial reaction to this election, and specifically to the surprisingly pro-Republican results we saw in New Jersey?
Gov. Phil Murphy: We were not unique. Harris underperformed Biden 2020 by between 10 and 12 points in a bunch of big blue states, almost identically. I know on that list, other than New Jersey, are New York, Illinois, Maryland, and California at a minimum. It’s not unique, and the reason I can say it’s not unique is, with the exception of Sue Altman and a couple of county races, we did really well downballot, including where Trump won. Trump won Passaic County; we swept three commissioner races and a sheriff’s race, to pick an example. So it’s a mixed bag.
And I think in terms of the top of the ticket, it’s probably a combination of: the kitchen table – it’s the economy, stupid – immigration fears, which feed into that; safety, crime, Trump is brilliant at all of those; Harris’s short runway to introduce herself, only since July 21; and an inability to even call out a couple of things that she would have done differently from President Biden, whose numbers are not good, notwithstanding my opinion of his being a very consequential president. So it’s a combination of a lot of different things, none of it really unique to New Jersey, but all of it real.
I’ve been looking specifically at numbers in heavily Hispanic areas, like Hudson County and Passaic County, and it’s clear that Trump did unusually well in those communities. What do you make of that?
It’s a fact, first of all. Secondly, some of those communities were already with him, and the Republican Party, forever and always; the Cubans would be high on that list. But he broadened it to a pretty impressive result. I think it’s a combination of the things I just said. Shame on us as a party if we take any community for granted. The Latino community is screaming out to not be taken for granted and to be heard, and I think at the end of the day, it is the economy, stupid. There are real kitchen-table fears and concerns that the ticket did not address, pretty clearly. And we’d better be sober about it, accept it, and figure out what we’re going to do about it. The one thing I don’t know for sure: was it the messenger? Was it the substance of what they stood for? Was it the messaging? It’s probably a little bit of all of the above. But I can tell you this: it’s real.
It’ll be four years until the next presidential election, but New Jersey holds elections every year; there will be lots more chances for Democrats to either gain or lose ground with these communities again in 2025 and 2026. How are you feeling about those years? Do you think that Democrats have the ability to pull some of these voters back?
One hundred percent. Whether we do or not, time will tell. But we have a good story. I know what our administration has done: we’ve done a ton, and I would stand and run on that record every day of the week. I am an optimist. I believe we can bring folks home. Not to mention the fact that, if Trump does a fraction of the things that he claims he’s going to do, even if we don’t do a good job of bringing them home, they’re going to be scared home – that’s my fear. But again, time will tell. We have to execute. You can’t just say that and assume it’s going to happen. You have to actually earn it. And I’m confident we can.
In terms of your own governorship, how do you think having a Trump presidency for the next year is going to impact what you do and what New Jersey is able to do?
To be determined. I’m probably one of the last governors standing that had three years of Donald Trump already. So we know what that playbook looks like: it’s trying to balance what are opposite impulses applied situationally. If we are attacked, if our interests are attacked, our values are attacked, members of our community are attacked, we will fight fiercely, using all available weapons: legal, bully pulpit, legislation, executive order, you name it. If, on the other hand – both of these can be true, we know it can be true because we did it – if there is common ground to be found, we will be incredibly aggressive to try to find that common ground. Look at the Portal North Bridge, which got greenlit by President Trump; it’s a huge deal for commuters. That’s going to be finished next year. Look at the early months of Covid, when we worked, in the midst of tragedy, so well with his administration. So it’s going to be a combination. I think there will be a fair amount of what we do that will be untouched; at least, I hope. And there’ll be some stuff that will be tricky. Offshore wind will be tricky, as an example. So we shall see. I can tell you this: we won’t start our last year, on January 20, flat-footed.
You mentioned a couple of potential critiques of the Harris campaign: not distancing herself enough from Biden, Democrats didn’t connect on economic issues enough. Looking at New Jersey Democrats specifically, do you think that there is any part of the state party’s and the local parties’ messaging that needs to change in order to be more successful in the future?
I think if you’re a Democrat in America today, November 6, 2024, whether you’re in New Jersey or wherever you are, if you’re not sober, looking in the mirror, being cold-blooded honest with yourself – what did I do right or wrong? how did I say it right or wrong? what should I have focused on, right or wrong? – you’re living in fantasyland. Everybody’s got to look in the mirror, including yours truly. And I suspect we will. We’ve always done a good job of that in Jersey as a party, and I don’t see any reason why we won’t here.
Looking at yourself in the mirror, is there anything that you would have done differently?
It’s a good question. I’ll fail the test that I just put to Kamala Harris. Listen, I went on the road – New Hampshire, Pennsylvania – we did a bunch of Zooms in other places, my wife and I raised a ton of money, we contributed thoughts to their team on policy. But there has to be something more all of us, any of us, should’ve, could’ve done.
You mentioned fundraising – Democrats had big fundraising advantages in lots of congressional races and in the presidential race, and it maybe didn’t get them all that much. Do you think that the era when big influxes of money into politics can win races is over?
It’s not over, but it’s a good reminder that money is not everything. You don’t ever want to unilaterally disarm yourself. Citizens United continues to be an awful Supreme Court decision with huge implications, but that’s not the reason we lost. As you rightfully point out, we had a lot of money working.
In the 7th district specifically, Democrats raised a lot of money there; that was seen as a very competitive race. Tom Kean Jr. ended up beating Sue Altman by a decent margin. Why do you think that was? And what do you think is the path forward in that district?
She ran a very good race. Here’s my takeaway: you can’t win that district if the top of the ticket underperforms by a dozen points relative to last time. If Kamala’s competitive in that district, I think Sue wins, or she’s at least competitive. But she was dragged down in a way that was impossible for her to win. The answer is, going forward, if you had a high-performing top of the ticket, it’s not as Democratic as it used to be, but that’s a winnable district still. Not easily, but winnable.
And do you think Democrats need to worry at all about any of the districts they won by surprisingly narrow margins, like Nellie Pou’s district?
I think, if you don’t reflect on what happened yesterday – even if you won – you’re kidding yourself. Everybody’s got to look at that. Every district that we won or lost, you’ve got to ask yourself, did I execute? Did we have the right team in the field? Whatever the question has to be.