Could gas prices already have peaked even before the busy summer season has started?
Two gas and oil analysts agreed that the highest prices consumers will pay this summer will be at the beginning of the season and will not be budget busters preventing a road trip.
“The highest prices will be now and will get moderately lower on July 4,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for Gas Buddy. “Labor Day is lowest.”
What that means is, barring a summer hurricane, gas prices will not be a reason to put off a summer road trip, said Tom Kloza, independent oil analyst and co-founder of the Oil Price Information Service.
“This summer will be front end loaded,” he said. “The number you pay in the first 30 days of summer will be higher than the last 30 days of summer.”
The reason is due to two factors.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) increased oil production by 140,000 barrels of oil a day starting in April and the effect of President Donald Trump throwing out the economic playbook, both experts said.
Barring a hurricane, summer is traditionally the time when demand for gas is high as people take vacations and gas prices increase accordingly.
AAA predicts that 966,319 people will travel by car this Memorial Day weekend, a 2.7% increase over last year’s 941,169.
New Jersey gas prices averaged $3.05 per gallon on Wednesday, while the national average price for regular is $3.18, according to AAA.
There has been a slight march upward over the past month — the New Jersey average price was $2.96 a month ago and a week ago, that stood at $2.98.
Gas Buddy’s crowd sourced round up of discount gas stations shows low prices range from $2.66 to $2.74 for regular,
“If you shop around, you can find gas at $2.75 if you want,” Kloza said. “These are the cheapest numbers for Memorial Day since Covid.”
The price of crude oil, the raw material gas is refined from, did a bit of a roller coaster ride in May, hitting a high of $63 a barrel on May 12, dipping to $61 on May 15 and increasing to $62.86, according to oilprice.com.
Technically, Jersey drivers saw two non-marketplace gas price increases this year. In January the state gas tax increased by 2.6 cents per gallon. In April the annual switch to summer blend reformulated gas increased prices.
So how did Trump’s economic moves affect gas prices?
“It was first felt at the pump when the summer gas switch happened without a dramatic price increase,” DeHaan said. “(Drivers) didn’t feel it because it happened in the midst of Trump ratcheting up tariffs.”
Also helping drivers was Saudi Arabia and OPEC increasing production of crude oil, De Haan and Kloza said.
What could affect demand for gas and summer travel is the changing national economic picture, including layoffs in certain industries, De Haan said.
GasBuddy’s national summer travel survey said 69% of drivers surveyed plan on taking a road trip, down from 76% in 2024.
“Americans are feeling jittery,” De Haan said, citing layoffs in certain fields and economic concerns. “That contributes to demand (for gas) that’s not that strong.”
Kloza said the policies Trump is pursuing in the Middle East and the Ukraine “all likely to result in cheap crude now until the end of 2026.”
Trump tinkering with economy could affect oil and gas prices.
“If he slows tariffs that could lead to economic growth and more oil consumption,” De Haan said. “If he shuffles the economic playbook, prices could go north.”
The claim of seeing $1.99 per gallon gas is not accurate, Kloza said. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that Mississippi had the lowest price in the nation last month at $2.69 a gallon.
“He wants, needs and will work for cheap oil prices,” Kloza said. “His policies will produce cheap energy for a while. If he puts (higher) tariffs on Canadian oil, it will cause a price wobble.”
Stories by Larry Higgs
Our journalism needs your support. Please subscribe today to NJ.com.
Larry Higgs may be reached at lhiggs@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on X @CommutingLarry